B-TIER news
Strait of Hormuz and AIS data — why shadow fleets break the news narrative
100k ft — What is this?
Strait of Hormuz and AIS data — why shadow fleets break the news narrative
50k ft — Why care?
Media reports of a closed Strait of Hormuz lean on AIS ship-tracking data, but shadow-fleet vessels go dark or spoof their positions. A research outfit sent an analyst by boat from Oman and found steady traffic, especially Chinese ships on alternate routes. The broader point: single data sources, and AI systems, collapse diversity of thought.
10k ft — Key takeaways
• AIS is spoofable; treat it as one signal, not truth
• Field verification can overturn a consensus built on one dataset
• Leaning on one AI or data feed homogenizes conclusions
5k ft — Tools & techniques
(no tools tagged)
AIS tracking, ground-truthing
1k ft — Deep-dive / try it
Samethink & the Strait
The wall-to-wall coverage of the Strait of Hormuz has been consistent: it’s closed, and the world is on the brink of catastrophe.
But what does “closed” actually mean?
Because on the ground, the reality looks very different.
A research group sent someone directly into the region—through Oman, onto a locally piloted boat—to see it firsthand. What he found was not an empty strait. It was active. Ships are moving. In some cases, they’re even rerouting—but they’re still getting through. Notably, a number of Chinese vessels continue to pass.
So why does the global narrative lack this nuance?
Because much of modern reporting relies on a single system: AIS (Automatic Identification System) data. And here’s the problem: there’s an entire “shadow fleet” of ships that ei…
Transcript excerpt
There's a crazy story about this research company who sent a guy literally to the Strait of Hormuz, and he found out that the situation wasn't at all way that we are reading in the media. And it made me think about how in a drive for efficiency, we have a collapsing diversity of thought. The backstory is of course here that we're all reading about the Strait of Hormuz being closed, how it's a crisis, and how no one, not even Beijing, is getting through the Strait of Hormuz. But this research outfit that runs a substack hired analyst number three who's fluid in four language and sent him with a box of Cuban cigars, 15 grand in cash, and a role of zen. Literally this briefcase, two Oman, which is right here. He crossed into Oman and promised not to engage in journalism of any kind, but in his briefcase he had a microphone kit and recording sunglasses. He hires a stranger to take him on a boat out into the Strait of Hormuz. And he finds that there's actually a lot of activity going on there. He calls it manage chaos, there weren't any mines, and there was lots of traffic, especially Chinese vessels, and that they were using alternate routes that nobody was talking about. It turns out that the reason that we get all these same type of reports out of mainstream media outlets, is that in their drive for efficiency, they all use this automatic identification or AIS data, which is basically shipping data that is published to this website. And it tells you where ships are, but the…